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Overcoming Decision-Making Bias Shortcuts

Shortcuts! We all use them all the time. Who has not taken a shortcut to reach a desired destination or result more quickly? Shortcuts are designed to help us avoid hassles, reach preferred outcomes efficiently, and save time for other things. The experts tell us that we use shortcuts unconsciously in decision-making. However according to Nobel Prize winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman, unconscious decision-making shortcuts can lead to server and systematic errors. Think about that! Caseworkers make critical decision everyday. How many have considered that they may be employing shortcuts that have the potential for severe consequences?

What does a shortcut in decision-making look like?

Before answering this question, we should describe the basis of sound decision-making. Classical Decision Theory suggests that a sound decision would be supported with:

• Consideration of all possible known alternatives
• Use of a maximum amount of available information
• Careful weighing of all information and avoiding intuitive conclusions
• A maximum degree of sound reasoning

In decision-making shortcuts, we make judgments of probability based on similarity to past knowledge, information, experience, and beliefs. Shortcuts are used for convenience. They allow workers to minimize the cognitive effort needed to thoroughly assess a case. Research suggests that shortcuts do not always lead to bad decisions, but they can lead to less optimal decisions.

Some examples of decision-making shortcuts to avoid

The Halo Bias – An example is a caseworker attributing too much to general impressions of a person, the situation, the report, etc., rather than specific knowledge based information.

The Negative Information Bias – The danger here is the tendency to weigh negative information more heavily than positive information when making an overall evaluation.

The Stereotypes Bias – Everybody generates stereotypes as a form of organizing information. Stereotypes can be useful for making predictions about future behaviors. However, a stereotype may not describe any one individual accurately. Generally a decision-maker will rely more heavily on their stereotypes when other information about a person or case is not available.

The Confirmation Bias – This is the tendency to seek information that supports one’s decision or beliefs while ignoring disconfirming evidence. It is natural to form judgments based on first impressions. Once an interviewer has formed an initial notion he or she is likely to place more value on evidence that supports this rather than seeking information that might prove it wrong. Confirmation bias is a process of selective thinking. The worker is predisposed to notice and to look for what confirms his or her beliefs and to ignore evidence or information by not assessing or weighing it. If the worker does judge all the information, the bias is to undervalue its relevance if it contradicts the workers beliefs or pre-determined conclusions.

The Supporting Evidence Bias – A Caseworker wants to confirm what he or she already suspects and to look for facts that support it. This bias strongly influences the way one listens, paying to much attention to supporting information and too little to conflicting evidence. Psychologists believe this bias derives from two fundamental inclinations. The first is our nature to subconsciously decide what we want or expect the outcome to be before we understand why we want it. The second is the tendency to be more engaged by things we like than by things we dislike.

Questions a caseworker might consider in decision-making

• Am I examining all the evidence? Avoid the inclination to accept confirming evidence without question.
• Am I weighing all the pros and cons of the assessment data? Here a supervisor’s role could be to identify possible counter arguments, to serve as a devil’s advocate, to argue against the prevailing point of view. A staffing might be helpful.
• Am I being honest about my bias and my motives in this finding? Am I really gathering all the information to help make a fair decision that is in the best interest of the child and/or family or am I confirming what I already believe?
• Am I finding support for my decision from co-workers who hold to my beliefs and biases?
• Am I considering all the possible alternatives in the evidence that is presented?
• Have I sought the maximum available information before making my determinations?
• Have I carefully weighed of all information and avoided making intuitive conclusions?
• Can I honestly say that my findings, recommendations and determinations in this case are based on the maximum degree of my judgment and sound reasoning?

Reed Holder, M. Div., is Director of Government and Customer Relations for ACTION for Child Protection, Inc. He has been in the Human Services and Child Welfare field for 35 years.